Panel debates feasibility of missile defense system on Guam

Despite the military's best laid plans, a missile defense system to protect Guam against a Chinese strike may not be fully plausible. That's one of the key assessments of missile experts speaking during a panel discussion today hosted by local thinktank the Pacific Center for Island Security. The panel discussion was moderated by PCIS chairman Dr. Robert Underwood. 

His guests were Dr. Laura Grego, research director of the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists; and Matt Korda, senior research associate for the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists. The discussion was focused on the military's plans for a 360-degree missile defense system for Guam.

While complete details of the plan have not been fully released, the military will begin taking public input next month on potential environmental impacts. Dr. Grego says if the Missile Defense Agency and military are pressed to build the system as fast as possible, recent history says it could be a "rush to failure."

"What usually happens when you have to do something fast is that you don't do it well," she explained. "You skip steps, and you don't have accountability. You may have something, it's not even the worst part isn't wasting money. It's having false knowledge or assuming something works better than it really does and your false reassurance. So that's something that I'm always wary of when I hear of rushing and big complex systems."

What's known about the planned system is that could involve as many as 20 sites across the island, and might combine both land- and sea-based technology. But Dr. Underwood says our leaders and people need to know a lot more, and be an active part of the conversation.

Meanwhile, Korda raises yet a larger question, saying, "If missile defense is meant to be a defensive system but its supporting a posture that could potentially be provocative in some cases, then you do run the risk of wondering, are these defenses, 'defenses', are these defenses worth it if it enables a posture that could potentially bring the United States and China into direct conflict with one another."

"No amount of defenses is going to protect anyone from what that war could potentially look like."