The National Weather Service’s Guam Weather Forecast Office is continuing to monitor Invest Area 90w and now, as of 5:30 p.m., Tropical Depression 04W.

Briefing local and federal officials this afternoon, NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge, Brandon Aydlett, says Guam and the Marianas are looking at facing a tropical storm and a Category 1 Typhoon.

“We’ve been watching this for a couple of weeks now. The computer models, for a long time, have been showing some type of disturbance developing out of micronesia,” said Aydlett.

Earlier this morning the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a tropical cyclone formation alert, meaning a tropical cyclone is expected to form within the next 24 hours and a tropical depression being declared by the JTWC later today (Thursday) or Friday morning.

Aydlett shared that current model guidance of 90W shows a more likely scenario of the disturbance intensifying and passing just south of Guam.

“Compared to the other tropical depressions that we’ve had in the past few months, this one is the one that looks like it's got everything going for it to intensify,” he added. “Where you’re seeing all those reds and purples – that is indicating a very moist atmosphere all the way to the upper levels at 30k to 40k feet. This has a great rotation. That bodes well for continued intensification. We didn’t have that with the prior tropical disturbances earlier this year.”

Currently, there are no tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

However, marine hazards advisories are, with a small craft advisory out for the Marianas, as well as warnings for high risk of rip currents along east facing shores.

These advisories will remain in effect for the next several days as the region endures an elevated trade wind pattern, blowing north easterly to easterly.

Currently, Invest 90W is positioned just north of Chuuk Lagoon, moving northwest at 6 mph.

“We do expect to see a slight turn to the west, northwest over the next 24 hours,” said Adylett.

And while Adylett says it’s possible the system heads more directly to the west.

“But we’re looking at that slight turn to the west, northwest to send it on a trajectory that should pass it south of Guam late in the weekend, early next week,” he adds.

He adds that if the system shifts northward over Guam and the Marianas, that is when the island chain could experience harsher conditions.

The NWS says by late Saturday and continuing into early next week, the Marianas should expect increasing showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds.

The heaviest rainfall and possible onset of damaging winds of at least 39 mph sustained winds are anticipated Sunday night into early Tuesday.

“Among all the models that we’re looking at, they are all favoring continued intensification – eventually showing a typhoon entering the Philippine Sea early next week,” added Aydlett.

For the next few days, however, residents can expect fair, breezy weather through Saturday.

But again, Aydlett and the NWS urge residents to take caution and prepare to secure your homes.

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“Tents, canopies, tarps. Those are going to be at risk. Ensure they are either taken down or well secured, he said.

At this time, Adylett says it’s still too early to tell just how close 90w will get to Guam and the Marianas, but more fine-tuned models and information will be made available as the system continues to organize.

For updates visit the National Weather Service’s website and Facebook page, as well as Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense’s website and Facebook page.