As Guam’s economy continues to recover, leaders at this year’s Economic Outlook Forum say the real challenge is preparing for what happens when today’s biggest economic driver eventually fades.

Nearly six years after the pandemic, the island's economy is showing signs of improvement: jobs are rebounding and wages are rising. But speakers at the Guam Chamber of Commerce’s 2026 Economic Outlook Forum agreed – those gains may be temporary without long-term planning.

Guam’s economy still relies on two pillars: tourism and the military build up. And business leaders say that model is no longer sustainable. 

While military construction continues to fuel growth, its creating a false sense of security as it's expected to wind down within 7-9 years.  When it does, Guam will lose billions in contract revenue and the Business Privilege Tax tied to it.

However, panelist Michael Limtiaco, vice president of Pacific Unlimited, says Guam can still leverage the military buildup now – through using revenue generated to strengthen infrastructure, expand skilled trades education, and improve the business climate – but only with government support.

“And to our government leaders, we need your help," Limtiaco said. "Businesses need an environment that makes it easier and more efficient to conduct business.”

Tourism remains critical, but, again, has not fully recovered. According to Guam Visitors Bureau chairman George Chiu, visitor arrivals remain well below pre-pandemic levels, especially from Guam’s core markets of Japan and South Korea. He added, “If I’m optimistic for 2026, I hope to get to 1 million tourists. A million arrivals into Guam in 2026 will get us to 65% of my benchmark for Korea and 46% of my benchmark for Japan.”

Chiu adds that a full recovery could still take 3-5 years. He also pointed to a cycle of challenges facing the visitor industry – from the strong U.S. Dollar and higher prices to weakened traveler reviews of island activities, that have also led to declining retail activity.

Now, the focus for local businesses is diversification and building a third economic pillar strong enough to carry the island forward.

Possible solutions included utility reform by implementing new methods of district cooling in Tumon to reduce electricity demand, as well as greater investment in education and workforce development through expanding charter schools to lower long-term costs and improve competitiveness.

With Guam’s $1.4 billion government budget funded largely by income and business taxes, attendees and speakers alike emphasized the need for accountability by our government leaders – ensuring all economic growth translates into real benefits for island residents.