The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s tropical cyclone outlook for the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of the Marshall Islands will likely see below-normal tropical cyclone (TC) activity for the remainder of 2025.

While TC activity across Guam, the CNMI, Yap State in the western FSM and the Republic of Palau is anticipated to be near-normal for the remainder of 2025.

This outlook comes as the Pacific transitions from La Niña to Enso-neutral conditions, according to the National Weather Service and NOAA’s climate prediction center.

During La Niña years, typhoons tend to track farther west. In El Niño years, they shift east. 

With Enso-neutral in place, NOAA expects a slight eastward shift compared to 2024, resulting in a typical number of storms for Guam and the Marianas, and fewer for the FSM and RMI.

They advised that even a “near-normal” season can bring strong typhoons. 

Storm peaks usually occur between September and November but systems can form at any time, so year-round preparedness is essential.

This outlook is a general guide to the predicted, overall TC activity across the USAPI and does not indicate how many of these systems will actually make landfall.