Guam - Students from the University of Guam have completed their first major poll to see how the Democrat and Republican candidates stack up against one another. Over the past weekend more than 240 registered voters participated in a political poll conducted by students from UOG, led by their professor, and KUAM political analyst Ron McNinch.
They were asked the following question: who do you think will be elected or re-elected in the 2012 general elections? "This was a telephone poll, and a telephone book, that's the method we used to select the people to participate in this poll," he said.
And starting with the congressional race, incumbent Madeleine Bordallo soared above her opponents. "Certainly Congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo is a political rock star for Guam," he said.
According to the numbers, she maintained her rock star status, even if you combined the votes of Republican Frank Blas Jr., Democrat Karlo Dizon and Independent Jonathon Diaz. She still tops the charts. "I think it shows just how endurable her political persona is," he said.
As for the senatorial race, the Democrat coming up big. The breakdown a supermajority, with ten Democrats and only five Republicans making the top 15 on the UOG student poll. "There are two new people one has been in the legislature before, Frank Aguon placed and Brant McCreadie placed and so there's some shuffling," he said.
Here's the breakdown of the top 15:
The top three spots go to incumbents Speaker Judi Won Pat, Tina Muna Barnes and Tom Ada. If this poll holds through the general Frank Aguon, Jr will make a comeback as will incumbents Judi Guthertz, Rory Respicio and Republicans Aline Yamashita and Tony Ada. Ben Pangelinan ranking number nine on the poll, followed by B.J. Ccruz, Dennis Rodriguez, Jr and Mana Silva Taijeron in the 12th spot, Adolpho Palacios 13th, Brant McCreadie 14 and incumbent Sam Mabini in the 15th spot. According to McNinch, candidates shouldn't get comfortable.
"I would say 10 of the top 15 might make it in the general election in November, so there's going to five spaces that are going to be jostling it could be that up to four incumbents won't make it - it could be that there's going to be a lot of moving around. Again, we've seen people that have been at the very, very top of our poll in July rock bottom by the time November rolls around," he said.
And that's good news for candidates below the 15th spot such as Joe San Agustin coming in at 16, 17 incumbent Chris Duenas, 18 Tommy Morrison, followed by Michelle Taitano, Michael Limtiaco, Roland Blas, Adonis Mendiola, Leah Beth Naholowaa, Frank Gumataotao, Antonio Aquiningoc , Jose Servino, William Sarmiento, Michael San Nicolas, Javier Atalig, Benedicto Toves and Moe Cotton.
"If you're low on the poll it doesn't matter, it matters how hard you work from now and the election and how much heart you put into it and how much effort you make," he said.
After all, the only poll that really matters is the one in November.