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McNinch makes Decision 2014 projections

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 by Sabrina Salas Matanane

Guam - With the primary election right around the corner, UOG professor and KUAM political analyst Ron McNinch spoke before island Rotarians about Decision 2014 and what people can expect heading into November.

This Saturday's primary is just the warm up for the big show in November. Only two candidates won't advance.

He said, "If you talked to people they don't feel like this is a normal election cycle they don't feel anything because there's no real competition. There's a GOP candidate s they got to knock out that's not really a republican candidate, there's a delegate candidate for democrat that's going to be knocked out and that's about it there's not a lot else going on in this election."

But once the September primary's over, McNinch says the race is on. Fundraising will kick in and candidates will work hard to get your vote.

Starting with the delegate race, McNinch says incumbent Madeleine Bordallo will move forward and face off with lone republican Margaret Metcalfe.  Matter of fact he says Metcalfe is the most viable republican delegate candidate since 2002. "By that I mean and its something that's not stated very much but I will tell you from a campaigning electioneering standpoint its very, very difficult for male candidates to run against female candidate its very tough female candidates running against female candidates are usually generally more successful. I think Margaret Metcalfe in this head to head race is probably going to do a lot better than people might expect in fact she's right in the zone of being able to if the numbers wabble right she could win on the other hand it could be Madeleine and her 45," he said.

As for the legislative race McNinch says both parties have incumbents and near incumbents seeking a seat in the 33rd Guam Legislature. It should be close in the fight for majority, but overall it should remain democrat controlled. A supermajority he says it not likely. "All else equally it looks like 8-7, 9-6 on the democratic legislative side. The problem is the democrats ever since probably 6 years ago could have had a super majority that's ten or more democrats making a veto proof legislature but the democrats don't cooperate with each other to do that they get their groups to bullet vote only certain democrat candidates and that lowers the opportunities for other democrat candidates to their determine and that's why we don't see a really dominant democrat legislature 506

As for the race to Adelup, like Decision 2010 prepare for the onslaught of negative ads and a fight to finish. "I don't think this is going to be runaway race for anybody I think this is going to be a very interesting race and its going to be a close race all else equal 1003at least as it looks right now," he said.

REVIEW RON MCNINCH'S PRESENTATION
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