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McNinch projects Decision 2014 races

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 by Ken Quintanilla

Guam - While the candidates have yet to be certified, some are already forecasting how Decision 2014 will pan out.

University of Guam professor and political analyst Ron McNinch says this year's election will feature a good active set of races. For instance, the race for the attorney general. "But I think in general for the attorney general's kind of position people like rotation and change if they can have it 0828 and there's something to that 0830 and so we'll see where that goes," he said.

AG Leonardo Rapadas is going up against former Superior Court judge and Guam's first female AG Elizabeth Barrett Anderson. A recent UOG poll showed 71% in support of Barrett Anderson and 27% for incumbent Rapadas. For the congressional race, McNinch says it may be tough for Matthew Artero to defeat 6-term congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo. As for the Guam Legislature, aside from the incumbents, five are former senators including Republicans James Espaldon and Frank Blas Jr. and Democrats Judi Guthertz, Adolpho Palacios and Hope Cristobal.

"By and large those types of candidates, the consolation candidates and the candidates who are trying to return after previously serving are generally pretty strong candidates," McNinch said.

Aside from former legislators, McNinch says familiar names like Mary Torres and former DOE superintendent Dr. Nerissa Underwood may connect emotionally with voters, noting, "So what happens is people feel they know the person, they feel emotionally about them and then they act on that emotion."

So who does he think will get the majority? "All else equal I would say since the issue of the governor's seat being dominated by a republican for 12 years and there's not a lot of migrating republicans that are really coming over probably it'll be a democrat legislature again, at least an 8-7 Democrat legislature all else equal because of the number of incumbents that are already re-running and some other factors but you know anything could happen," he said.

And while the real winner won't be determined until the general election, McNinch says the gubernatorial race may pan out like the 2010 election. "You have 2 solid candidates from 2 solid parties with 2 solid people, I think it's going to be very close," he stated.

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